Network Effects & Friendly Developer Moats

Crypto assets are unique in the sense that they are either natively baked into a network or exist on top of a network. There are many crypto assets but one, in particular, deserves your attention. The network is known as Ethereum and it has a native asset called Ether. Ethereum has the most daily users, daily transaction volume, the total number of assets built on top of the network and most importantly, the number of developers.

While Bitcoin is #1 when it comes to total network market capitalization and general market awareness, Ethereum will continue to gain notoriety in the space as it can do what Bitcoin cannot do; smart contractsprogrammable money and decentralized applications. Ethereum has developed an incredible network effect and developer moat during its past four years of existence. This will cause it to not only continue to grow rapidly, but with compounding effects as shown by Metcalfe’s Law.

Network effect is a phenomenon whereby increased numbers of people (developers, companies…etc) or participants (users, investors…etc) improve the value of a good or service. One way to judge a crypto asset’s network effect is to look at projects built on the network.

In the case of Ethereum, there are currently more than 2,600 decentralized applications. In comparison, its closest competitors are EOS.IO and BlockStack which have 297 and 250 applications respectively.

The problem for Ethereum competitors is that they are still building the primitive building blocks that are necessary to create more complex applications. Ethereum has been developing these building blocks over the past few years and includes things like decentralized exchangesoracles, and stable coins. These allow developers to build more complex applications through what is known as composability — the ability to leverage existing projects in order to build something completely new.

Ethereum Building Blocks — Source is Delphi Digital

Source: Delphi Digital

One great example of composability is Set Protocol. This utilizes Ethereum, a stable coin (Dai, built in 2017) and decentralized exchange (KyberSwap, built in 2018) in order to create automated asset management strategies which are sometimes called “autonomous money robots.”

Ethereum Composability — Source is Delphi Digital

Source: Delphi Digital

While there are already projects looking to compose Set Protocol into the next mind-blowing application, Set is just one example of many projects that were created through Ethereum composability.

The term network effect is not new and what we are seeing now is nearly identical to the growth of the internet.

“The internet was of relatively little value to anyone outside of the military and some research scientists at first, but as more users gained access to the Internet, they produced more content, information, and services.” — Wikipedia

This snowball effect that happened in the early days of the internet is happening now with Ethereum.

This network effect tends to create immense stickiness with builders which forms a developer moat. The majority of developers do not want to recreate an entire ecosystem just to deploy their new application successfully. This creates a chicken and egg problem for new networks as developers want access to the basic building blocks to create interesting and complex use cases, which sends them directly to the vibrant Ethereum ecosystem.

This post has only just scratched the surface of Ethereum, which is a constantly evolving organism and is nowhere near its final form. While it’s nearly a full-time job keeping tabs on this lush ecosystem, I do my best. If interested in learning more, feel free to reach out to me directly and I’ll be sure to point you to the best resources.

Bitcoin Market Cycles and You

anthonypost2Let us analyze the Bitcoin Market Cycles and how the deeper know-how help in building a robust investment portfolio of future.  Market adjustment is inevitable and better not leave any stone untouched!!

The crypto asset market is highly emotional, full of noise and thus incredibly hard to navigate. This has created significant information asymmetry among participants, which can be a boon to investors who can be level headed and get proper signal. We are at an inflection point in a market that shows institutions are coming as critical infrastructure continues to come online. Most notably the launching of CME Futures in 2017, Fidelity Digital Assets in 2018, and now ICE’s BAKKT in 2019.

The crypto asset market has since been primarily dominated by retail investors but certainly has shown niche hedge funds in the mix as well. Interestingly enough, this once in a lifetime market has shown that not only has the average Joe not taken advantage of buying and selling opportunities, but even some of the most prominent hedge funds in the space did not have proper risk management.

If you are reading this article around the date of publishing, it is time you take notice of where we may be in the current market cycle. The chart below shows the past 3 Bitcoin market cycles, which consist of bull markets, bear markets and accumulation phases. Based on this chart, it appears we are entering a final re-accumulation phase before the next large bull market which would likely propel Bitcoin far higher than the previous $20,000 all time high.

It’s important to understand that this chart is not to be taken as gospel but more as a basic education reference point to help you understand market cycles. The re-accumulation phase may very well be shorter (or longer) than shown in the image.

Again, this market is highly emotional and causes most investors to focus on short term price action instead of gathering high quality information and positioning themselves properly for more significant midterm or long-term price action. The crypto asset market and associated high quality assets will continue to appreciate in value; don’t miss out on this once in a lifetime opportunity due to low quality information and short term thinking.

Thoroughly understanding the Bitcoin Market Cycles help you as investor to build a balanced growth portfolio. Learn more on why seasoned investors are including Cryptos like Bitcoin & Ethereum in their portfolios in 2019 & beyond!!

Reaffirming Bitcoins’ Strength for Long Term Investment 💰

bitcoin

A new study indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) holders make a profit after an average of 1,335 days – which equates to roughly three years and eight months. The data was released earlier by Bitcoin maximalists, and the cycle lengths are shown roughly correlate to the various reward halving events.

The chart (shown above) essentially considers the amount of time between different peaks and how long it would take an investor to profit if they bought at the previous cycle’s peak. Refer to the chart above.

This means that a 100% definite profit would have taken a maximum of 1,335 days, which relates to the bull market run that occurred late in 2013 when the Bitcoin price surged to $1,150. If an investor bought at that price, the peak of that cycle, then it would have meant it took until early 2017 before the Bitcoin price finally broke that level again.

Seeing as this chart is looking at the market extremes, missing the peak of that rally would have resulted in a drastically reduced wait for a profit. Holding Bitcoin for 317 days would have given a 75% chance of profit. You’d have a 60% chance of profit if Bitcoin was held for 35 days, and the likelihood that you were up over any single day was 50%.

If that sounds like a long time, comparable data for the stock market is exponentially longer. To contrast, an investor would have needed to hold their position for 23 years to achieve a sure profit on the S&P 500. This makes it clear that not only is Bitcoin safe, long term storage of wealth, but it is a reliable vehicle for your wealth if you are looking to turn a profit quickly.

It’s also notable that the analysis looked purely at the chance of profit and not the scale of that profit. When Bitcoin is on a bull run, the profits there dwarf those achievable on the stock market indices. A real-world example from this year is the Greyscale Bitcoin Investment Trust, which outperformed everything else so far in 2019 with an appreciation of almost 300% to date.

In addition to Bitcoin, Gold has also been an extremely strong performer this year and is presently a hot topic among traders. Bullish signs continue this week and leading investors have been speaking out on the merits of the precious metal. Mark Mobius, the founding partner of Mobius Capital Partners, appeared on CNBC earlier this week and recommended that investors hold 10% of their portfolios in physical gold.

The latest price targets have the Gold price reaching the $1,600 mark before the end of the year. As global trade policy uncertainty continues, Gold looks a solid bet to keep building on its bullish momentum.

INVESTORS UNNERVED AT MORE WARNING SIGNALS IN STOCK MARKET

Earlier this week, a powerful warning signal revealed itself as the stock market got turned upside down.

Value stocks, or those with low multiples and stable fundamentals, significantly outperformed their growth counterparts. This type of shift is unnerving to investors because “momentum stocks”, or those defined by their large growth expectations relative to the broader market, have outperformed value names in recent years. Rotation away from these stocks could result in a downturn for the broader market.

Over the past 5 years, momentum stocks have blown away their value counterparts. Most of the top-performing S&P 500 stocks this year are growth names. Seven of the 10 best-performing stocks in the benchmark — including Chipotle Mexican Grill, Advanced Micro Devices and MarketAxess Holdings — have a much higher valuation relative to the broader index, FactSet data shows.

Monday’s session was the complete opposite of the year’s trend, however. This, coupled with geopolitical trade uncertainty, casts a dark forecast over the markets for the coming months.

LEADING INVESTOR SAYS ‘GOLD IS THE WAY TO GO’

Mark Mobius, the founding partner of Mobius Capital Partners, appeared on CNBC earlier this week and recommended that investors hold 10% of their portfolios in physical gold.

“Physical gold is the way to go, in my view, because of the incredible increase in money supply,” said Mobius.

“All the central banks are trying to get interest rates down, they are pumping money into the system. Then, you have all of the cryptocurrencies coming in, so nobody really knows how much currency is out there,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs” on Friday.

Mobius said that investors should place at least 10% of their portfolios in physical gold, with the rest invested in dividend-yielding equities. That’s especially true if the dollar gets weaker.

“People are going to finally realize that you got to have gold because all the currencies will be losing value,” he added.

Gold can retain its value much better than other forms of currency and is traditionally a safe haven during market volatility. A weaker dollar tends to boost the price of gold as global trade in the yellow metal is denominated in U.S. dollars.

“At the end of the day, gold is a means of exchange. It’s a stable currency in some way,” said Mobius.

Now is the time to take advantage of the rising price of gold and protect yourself from stock market volatility. Indicators are showing that these bullish trends will continue in the gold markets, giving you an excellent opportunity for immediate growth and providing protection for your assets against future economic downturns. Don’t miss out on this opportunity. Act now and reap the benefits.