Bitcoin Market Cycles and You

anthonypost2Let us analyze the Bitcoin Market Cycles and how the deeper know-how help in building a robust investment portfolio of future.  Market adjustment is inevitable and better not leave any stone untouched!!

The crypto asset market is highly emotional, full of noise and thus incredibly hard to navigate. This has created significant information asymmetry among participants, which can be a boon to investors who can be level headed and get proper signal. We are at an inflection point in a market that shows institutions are coming as critical infrastructure continues to come online. Most notably the launching of CME Futures in 2017, Fidelity Digital Assets in 2018, and now ICE’s BAKKT in 2019.

The crypto asset market has since been primarily dominated by retail investors but certainly has shown niche hedge funds in the mix as well. Interestingly enough, this once in a lifetime market has shown that not only has the average Joe not taken advantage of buying and selling opportunities, but even some of the most prominent hedge funds in the space did not have proper risk management.

If you are reading this article around the date of publishing, it is time you take notice of where we may be in the current market cycle. The chart below shows the past 3 Bitcoin market cycles, which consist of bull markets, bear markets and accumulation phases. Based on this chart, it appears we are entering a final re-accumulation phase before the next large bull market which would likely propel Bitcoin far higher than the previous $20,000 all time high.

It’s important to understand that this chart is not to be taken as gospel but more as a basic education reference point to help you understand market cycles. The re-accumulation phase may very well be shorter (or longer) than shown in the image.

Again, this market is highly emotional and causes most investors to focus on short term price action instead of gathering high quality information and positioning themselves properly for more significant midterm or long-term price action. The crypto asset market and associated high quality assets will continue to appreciate in value; don’t miss out on this once in a lifetime opportunity due to low quality information and short term thinking.

Thoroughly understanding the Bitcoin Market Cycles help you as investor to build a balanced growth portfolio. Learn more on why seasoned investors are including Cryptos like Bitcoin & Ethereum in their portfolios in 2019 & beyond!!

Reaffirming Bitcoins’ Strength for Long Term Investment 💰

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A new study indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) holders make a profit after an average of 1,335 days – which equates to roughly three years and eight months. The data was released earlier by Bitcoin maximalists, and the cycle lengths are shown roughly correlate to the various reward halving events.

The chart (shown above) essentially considers the amount of time between different peaks and how long it would take an investor to profit if they bought at the previous cycle’s peak. Refer to the chart above.

This means that a 100% definite profit would have taken a maximum of 1,335 days, which relates to the bull market run that occurred late in 2013 when the Bitcoin price surged to $1,150. If an investor bought at that price, the peak of that cycle, then it would have meant it took until early 2017 before the Bitcoin price finally broke that level again.

Seeing as this chart is looking at the market extremes, missing the peak of that rally would have resulted in a drastically reduced wait for a profit. Holding Bitcoin for 317 days would have given a 75% chance of profit. You’d have a 60% chance of profit if Bitcoin was held for 35 days, and the likelihood that you were up over any single day was 50%.

If that sounds like a long time, comparable data for the stock market is exponentially longer. To contrast, an investor would have needed to hold their position for 23 years to achieve a sure profit on the S&P 500. This makes it clear that not only is Bitcoin safe, long term storage of wealth, but it is a reliable vehicle for your wealth if you are looking to turn a profit quickly.

It’s also notable that the analysis looked purely at the chance of profit and not the scale of that profit. When Bitcoin is on a bull run, the profits there dwarf those achievable on the stock market indices. A real-world example from this year is the Greyscale Bitcoin Investment Trust, which outperformed everything else so far in 2019 with an appreciation of almost 300% to date.

In addition to Bitcoin, Gold has also been an extremely strong performer this year and is presently a hot topic among traders. Bullish signs continue this week and leading investors have been speaking out on the merits of the precious metal. Mark Mobius, the founding partner of Mobius Capital Partners, appeared on CNBC earlier this week and recommended that investors hold 10% of their portfolios in physical gold.

The latest price targets have the Gold price reaching the $1,600 mark before the end of the year. As global trade policy uncertainty continues, Gold looks a solid bet to keep building on its bullish momentum.

INVESTORS UNNERVED AT MORE WARNING SIGNALS IN STOCK MARKET

Earlier this week, a powerful warning signal revealed itself as the stock market got turned upside down.

Value stocks, or those with low multiples and stable fundamentals, significantly outperformed their growth counterparts. This type of shift is unnerving to investors because “momentum stocks”, or those defined by their large growth expectations relative to the broader market, have outperformed value names in recent years. Rotation away from these stocks could result in a downturn for the broader market.

Over the past 5 years, momentum stocks have blown away their value counterparts. Most of the top-performing S&P 500 stocks this year are growth names. Seven of the 10 best-performing stocks in the benchmark — including Chipotle Mexican Grill, Advanced Micro Devices and MarketAxess Holdings — have a much higher valuation relative to the broader index, FactSet data shows.

Monday’s session was the complete opposite of the year’s trend, however. This, coupled with geopolitical trade uncertainty, casts a dark forecast over the markets for the coming months.

LEADING INVESTOR SAYS ‘GOLD IS THE WAY TO GO’

Mark Mobius, the founding partner of Mobius Capital Partners, appeared on CNBC earlier this week and recommended that investors hold 10% of their portfolios in physical gold.

“Physical gold is the way to go, in my view, because of the incredible increase in money supply,” said Mobius.

“All the central banks are trying to get interest rates down, they are pumping money into the system. Then, you have all of the cryptocurrencies coming in, so nobody really knows how much currency is out there,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs” on Friday.

Mobius said that investors should place at least 10% of their portfolios in physical gold, with the rest invested in dividend-yielding equities. That’s especially true if the dollar gets weaker.

“People are going to finally realize that you got to have gold because all the currencies will be losing value,” he added.

Gold can retain its value much better than other forms of currency and is traditionally a safe haven during market volatility. A weaker dollar tends to boost the price of gold as global trade in the yellow metal is denominated in U.S. dollars.

“At the end of the day, gold is a means of exchange. It’s a stable currency in some way,” said Mobius.

Now is the time to take advantage of the rising price of gold and protect yourself from stock market volatility. Indicators are showing that these bullish trends will continue in the gold markets, giving you an excellent opportunity for immediate growth and providing protection for your assets against future economic downturns. Don’t miss out on this opportunity. Act now and reap the benefits.

“Chart Of The Century” Gives Valuable Insight Into Cost of Living and Inflation

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A chart from economist Mark Perry, creator of the Carpe Diem blog, has been making the rounds on Twitter lately and is being hailed as “stunning” and “one of the most important charts about the economy this century”.

The chart examines the change in prices of various US Consumer goods, services, and wages over the past two decades.  Seen below, it shows how the price of consumer goods with strong foreign competition, such as TVs and toys, have plummeted while the cost of domestic services like healthcare and college tuition skyrocketed.

It helps pinpoint the reasons for the recent increase in market volatility, which some have blamed on inflation and rising wages.

The graphic above, which has made the rounds at the Federal Reserve, also hints at the effects of the possible reversal of globalization in the world economy, including higher inflation and the increased price of goods.  “We would have fewer choices, potentially less quality, less productivity, and higher prices if we reverse globalization,” said Timothy Adams, President of the Institute of International Finance, when discussing the chart’s implications.

It remains to be seen what the long term effects of the current trade tariffs will be, as they are designed to break down trade barriers, not create new ones.  Regardless, globalization has generally had a deflationary effect on free economies such as the U.S. and U.K. where competition comes from lower-cost foreign companies.

The Federal Reserve has indicated that they’ll consider a rise in the price of goods as a temporary outcome, and intend to focus more on growth than inflation.

Now is the time to protect yourself from any uncertainty in the markets by investing in Gold.  Take advantage of the sustained growth in the Gold markets while providing a safe haven for your assets.  Don’t miss out on this opportunity. Act now and reap the benefits.

Fashion Builds Trust with Blockchain

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The gig economy and millennial are placing experience over just customer service and rewards over loyalty. The expectations are steep rising when it comes to the Apparel and Footwear as the industry leaders are elevating to overall fashion management. Combined with richer experience expectations, consumers are demanding more awareness with granular traceability and sustainability attempting to drive deeper to know more about apparels they buy, including the story behind each garment and how and where they are manufactured. It is high time for fashion brands to prove their trustworthiness necessitating complete transparency across the value chain on ethical sourcing and sustainability. It is more important in current times where many apparel companies lack ethical supply chains, and ~10% of global emissions are produced by the fashion industry alone.

The blockchain beyond cryptocurrencies offers a decentralized structure that provides immutability, transparency, and security making data trustworthy and scalability.  Blockchain technology has the potential to enable creating a fair, safe and more transparent fashion industry.  In this blog post, I will try to articulate how blockchain can bring added value to transforming business model and culture of the apparel industry from a supply chain that prizes consumption to a demand chain that takes pride in sustainability.

By leveraging Blockchain, fashion companies can offer greater transparency in supply chains creating new incentives for companies to change the way they do business and showcase their organizations. As shown in the diagram above, Blockchain helps create a peer-to-peer and decentralized network that connects all stakeholders in the value chain (design houses, farmers, raw material suppliers, manufacturers, transporters, distributors, retail outlets, banks, consumers and other parties of the complete supply chain). Using a decentralized system, all communication between these stakeholders will be direct and will not pass through a specific central entity. Due to its decentralized nature, the blockchain platform will not have any single point of failure and will not rely on any single entity.

The blockchain has demonstrated fashion supply chain transformation improving track-and-trace and inventory management thus far. By a further confluence of Blockchain, 3D printing and AI/ML technologies, the fashion industry may very well see much more dramatic improvements. Blockchain technology empowering fashion business with uniform real-time access to updated product information supplied by brands, a universal pathway for retailers to immediately report back to suppliers on aspects like stock levels and customer feedback, and has potential to add further on to this new building block structure.

Summarizing below how Blockchain technology further augments fashion value chain capabilities that help to deliver better outcomes.

Fashion Value Chain Capability Building with Blockchain:

Blockchain technology can provide consumers visibility into the entire fashion lifecycle of a garment, including materials and vendors used, the labor sources, and even the production, shipping and warehouse locations involved. Everyone from the farmer to the textile mill to the garment factory can communicate directly with the brand that buys from them. As well, consumers can interact directly with the brand/design house for co-creation or customization of the garments, influencing pricing and even co-investing in the concept. I can all out the following to articulate how Blockchain is augmenting fashion industry capabilities,

  • Create new levels of trust among Suppliers, Brands, and Customers
  • Design better PRODUCT, Offer improved SERVICE and Tell a unique STORY
  • Transform Apparel companies to Fashion Conglomerates

Delivering Better Outcomes with Fashion Blockchain:

Global companies like Patagonia and Everlane have been successfully betting on sustainability and supply chain transparency as a distinct selling proposition enabling customers to identify their suppliers. How Blockchain is delivering better fashion outcomes is summarized below.

  1. Enabling sustainability and circular economy: Blockchain is boosting fair trade practices offering consumers’ increasingly demanding transparency and allowing them to know where the fashion product is coming from.
  2. Better Traceability and Transparency: Blockchain enables fashion companies to communicate with the customers the complete product story (DNA) for each and every fashion garment. This includes comprehensive details on all stages of product life cycle starting from design inspiration, raw materials, manufacturing and distribution to the stores and also providing visibility of all stakeholders involved in the value chain to create traceability and transparency in true sense.
  3. Improved Experience & Goodwill: Blockchain applications allow customers to scan the tag and discover the history of every garment and thus help in improving the customer buying experience. Blockchain applications also can help fashion companies who license their trademarks or designs in tracking the sales and working out the royalty payments. As well, it enables design houses to document process steps and thus having the organic evidence of ownership on the designs.
  4. Brand Authenticity:  Fashion products can be verified by both retailers and consumers since branded garments pass through the blockchain steps and hence can be tracked. This could help to reduce the counterfeiting and diverting out of authentic products. Every time a fashion item moves from one place to other, its tag or code gets scanned thus recording its location with the time stamp. Consumers would be able to scan the item and trace its journey from raw material stage to their home and would be able to ascertain if the product is real or a counterfeit. Blockchain applications can help provide protection against the counterfeiting.

Fashion Blockchain Use Cases:

Blockchain is creating enough traction in the Fashion industry and successful use cases are increasing day by day. Here are few use cases of interest,

  • VeChain solution to tackle the fraud and ensure anti-counterfeiting of fashion products.  It provides a company’s product with a QR code or smart chip with its own unique ID. The company embeds the code, or chip, in its products, scans it, and stores it on the blockchain. The company can then track the product along with each phase of its life cycle: from its creation to the consumer. The blockchain is tamper proof. Consumers will know when they purchase that they are purchasing the original, authentic product.
  • Fashion Coin (FSHN) is a peer-2-peer version of electronic cash for Generation Z. Based on creativity, game theory and steganography+cryptography, Fashion Coin provides seamless and effortless online payments  – with maximum speed and limitless scale.
  • LUKSO is an open blockchain ecosystem specifically created for the fashion and lifestyle industry, providing a decentralized innovation and trust infrastructure for fashion brands, start-ups, and customers. The LUKSO architecture encourages its users to design and deploy an infinite number of innovative features for the modern fashion system: it opens up digital wardrobes and sharing economies, secures IP rights and authenticity, enables omnichannel communications and novel ways of funding collections.
  • faizod is currently paving the way in this area, working together with a logistics company to pioneer a prototype of such a Blockchain-based tracking system. The prototype pairs Blockchain with radio frequency identification (RFID), which uses radio waves to transmit information to a reader.
  • Provenance is increasing the transparency in the fashion supply chain by tracking the journey of raw material through the supply chain, this collaboration between fashion designer Martine Jarlgaard and Provenance highlights the role of blockchain technology in increasing transparency and substantiating claims in the fashion industry.

Given all the advantages, blockchain clearly seems to be the future for fashion, however, to speed up the application, a single and comprehensive blockchain standard adopted by the fashion industry has to come in fast.

Life Reimagined with Seamless Travel Experience

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Reimagining life in every aspect and bouncing ideas that create better experiences is the motto of this blog page. As per the AARP research in 2018, 57% of leisure travelers like to spend time with family and friends, 49% want to relax and rejuvenate, and 47% try to get away from routine stressed life. But the real-life experience of travelers is just the opposite of these expectations. Solutions that offer seamless travel experiences is the need of the day for better leisure outcomes. The ideal travel experience of current generation passengers would include:

  • Real-time journey information delivered to their personal devices
  • Biometric identification to facilitate their travel processes
  • Automation of more airport processes
  • Wait times of less than 10 minutes at security/immigration
  • Bags tracked throughout their journey
  • A human touch when things go wrong

What if a passenger arriving at security and immigration checkpoints has been previously vetted at check-in allowing a seamless, contactless process where the passenger simply needs to look at a smart camera to be cleared and allowed passage? Offering universal travel pass integrating cross-border security checks, hotel check-ins and entire travel life cycle tied with digital identity should be the new mantra of the travel industry.

Such universal travel passes will create a newfound demand for travel consultants to be more integrated with various service providers, making it a lucrative profession. Each traveler will be assigned a passenger record name/record locator so that all the services they opt for will be availed and kept secure, and the travel consultants will be the integral component of providing this.

Seamless universal travel experience is a great value to the travelers. And such a seamless travel experience is becoming a reality with new digital technologies. These technologies can enable travel agencies to transform into ‘digital travel agents’, enabling the booking process to become a trip planning experience, where agents will be able to provide more content, information and booking details. The congruence of technologies like IoT, Cloud, AI, Voice-Enabled Devices, Blockchain, and 5G has the potential to offer better experiences to travelers. As tourism continues to grow and route availability continues to shrink, airports are turning to seamless travel initiatives to help passengers stay on the move and increase their satisfaction.

The dominant technologies enabling seamless universal travel experience include,

  • Internet of Things: IoT can create a seamless trip where travelers are connected to their travel agents at every stage. IoT has the ability to connect customers with travel consultation throughout the entire lifecycle of the travel experience. For agents, a global or universal passenger record can allow travel consulting to change according to any requests from the customer. As for travelers, agents can provide a universal ‘travel pass’ that can be used for a trip, without separate boarding passes, hotel check-in, bus passes, and even theme park tickets. This universal travel pass would also handle multiple currencies, where travelers won’t need to worry about exchanging currencies when traveling between different countries.
  • Cloud – Improves the collaboration with travelers for a more personal experience transforming the offline model of the travel agent to have access to all cloud-based bookings regardless of location
  • AI and voice-enabled devices – AI has the potential to transform the inevitable hassles and inconvenience of airport travel into delightful passenger experiences. AI could enable travelers can leave their home with one single biometric identifier – and board a plane or cruise, check into their hotel, and hire a car with that unique identifier. Acuity Market Intelligence forecasts that the total number of airport biometric touchpoints – increasingly AI-enhanced facial recognition – at check-in, bag drop, security, and boarding gates will increase at a 27% CAGR from 2019 – 2022. Voice will be the future of booking travel. Travel agents are then able to take advantage of this and sell high value and high engagement products via voice
  • Blockchain – Blockchain technology could develop a ticket-booking solution that integrates multiple agencies – long-distance, regional,  and local agents, including Uber/Lyft car- or any other car-sharing firms. With a blockchain-based solution, travelers can book their travel with agents participating in the network with just a few clicks on a single website, without the need to switch across multiple sites and providers. The blockchain ledger can then record single customer purchase and even accurately can split the payment among the providers.
  • 5G network high speeds – 5G will give agents a better way to connect with travelers during their trips. If the traveler has a 5G connection, that allows the agent to be able to have a better video call with the traveler, without physically being there with them, assisting them along the way. 5G combining with VR/AR technologies offers a more engaging and immersive booking experience

Travel & Tourism sector should embrace the change creating a mass personalization contextualized to the travelers and leveraging ecosystem working with all stakeholders involved to maximize value leveraging biometrics and universal digital identity for truly seamless passenger experience.

Future of Financial Services Workforce

UntitledFinTech disruptors have been finding a way in by focusing on a particular innovative technology or process in everything from mobile payments to insurance. A forte of technologies “AI-ML-DL-NLP-CV” is fueling the FinTech innovations. The large financial services companies can’t be complacent as FinTechs have been attacking some of the most profitable elements of the value chain and as well as areas which were historically subsidized.

Let us refresh our memory on these AI technologies and their relevance to the financial services industry.

  • AI makes machines to learn from experience and perform human-like tasks – AI offers robotic & intelligent process automation (RPA/IPA) of financial processes
  • ML is a specific subset of AI that trains a machine on how to learn – ML is enabling algorithmic trading lead to better predictability and decisions around credit and consumer lending, thereby lowering risk to the bank or financial institution
  • DL is s a type of ML that trains a computer to perform human-like tasks, such as identifying images – leverage big data (customer demographics, consumption records, etc.) to parameterize a DL model that can simulate the likely response to new product/service configurations (e.g. new credit card with cash rewards, moderate interest, zero interest on balance transfers, etc.)
  • NLP is a branch of AI that helps computers understand, interpret and manipulate human language – NLP is shaping the future of banking with voice assistants and ubiquitous computing.
  • CV s a field of AI that trains computers to interpret and better understand the visual world –  CV is transforming financial services by using appealing visuals and new solutions for a new world where seeing is believing

These new-age FinTech developments are leading to a continuous transformation of the financial services workforce. The changing landscape and evolving financial services resource pyramid is presented in the diagram above. I would like to highlight a few trends reshaping the talent of financial services on this blog post.

  • AI automating business-as-usual activities of financial services: Robots and AI already started addressing key pressure points, reduce costs and mitigate risks. Building capabilities to target a specific combination of capabilities such as social and emotional intelligence, natural language processing, logical reasoning, identification of patterns and self-supervised learning, physical sensors, mobility, navigation and more are in swing. The goal is to look far beyond replacing the bank teller. There are whole categories of work that had not been seen as cost effective to automate. However, with lightweight software ‘bots’, workers are freed up to focus on higher value activities.
  • Changing patterns with Human vs Machines foray: Are financial services firms moving to re-shoring of work with talented machines? The answer seems to be, Yes. In the last two decades, many financial firms have ‘offshored’ repetitive tasks to lower-cost locations such as India, China, and Poland. However, relative costs for labor in those regions have started to rise. Combine this with improvements in robotics and AI capabilities and machines are becoming credible substitutes for many human workers. As the capabilities continue to improve and technology continues to drive down the cost of machines, these forces will combine to spur re-shoring, as more tasks can now be performed at a competitive cost on-shore. Even functions that seem dependent on human input, such as product design, fraud prevention, and underwriting, will be affected. At the same time, the need for software engineering talent will continue to expand
  • It is not just automation, Technology is picking high-end work: ML is enabling next-generation algorithmic trading systems are moving from descriptive and predictive to prescriptive analysis, improving their ability to anticipate and respond to emerging trends. And while algorithm trading programs were once limited to hedge funds and institutional investors, private investors can now get access to them too. AI soon automate a considerable amount of underwriting, especially in mature markets where data is readily available. Even in situations where AI does not completely replace an underwriter, greater automation would allow humans to concentrate on assessing and pricing risks in the less data-rich emerging markets. It would also free up underwriters to provide more risk management, product development advice and other higher value support for clients.
  • While building machines, the real focus is on accessing the necessary talent and skills to execute strategies and win markets: Financial services firms lack the internal knowledge and expertise need to implement a customer-centric approach. For example, a mainframe programmer who maintains a core banking platform may not have the skills or interests to learn to code AI applications. Many senior IT executives, non-IT staff-members, and even technical personnel do not have the skills needed to build and operate an effective digital channel offering. Financial institutions are starting to realize they will need talent with very different skills. This might mean finding more industrial engineers for robotics work, or retraining underwriters to do higher value work once AI is used to automate certain existing functions. But the issue runs deeper than developing a different competency model. First, firms to understand what is already working and what needs to be done differently. This might involve changes across the human capital strategy through revitalized recruitment, learning and development, partnering and cultural initiatives.
  • The contingent workforce is creating the talent-exchange mindset: financial firms need to address is the growing preference for flexibility and entrepreneurship among many in the labor force. In the United States, the US Chamber of Commerce has found that 27% of the labor force is currently self-employed, and some believe that this ‘contingent workforce’ could rise to 40% or more within several years. Practically, for this reason alone, financial institutions will need to adopt a ‘talent exchange’ mindset, leveraging part-time and/or self-employed individuals in a creative manner. This may range from bidding out specific tasks or work to expanding the use of seasonal or temporary workers. Of course, this will introduce challenges around culture and quality, and this will introduce new opportunities as well. For example, we might see employers using online platforms to manage confidentiality and legal risks in creative ways.

Artificial Intelligence capabilities impacting the financial industry and thereby attitudes toward work continue to change, some of the attributes that have benefitted institutions in the past such as big firm and stable employment are slowly losing their appeal. Refreshing financial firm’s approach to recruiting, learning and development, and culture may offer an effective way to address issues that FinTech has brought into the open market.

Welcome your ideas in further spotting future trends in financial services workforce.

 

Converting Commute to Constructive Time

Life ReimaginedHere is my first blog post on the theme “Life reimagined”. I am inclined to be futuristic on this post and going forward offers a right blend of the near-medium-long term trends in the future posts.

Work-life integration over work-life balance is a nice practice to nurture. But it is a mindset shift and demands the right human balance in the seamless transition back and forth between work and life. I am re-imagining the life with an innovative third space to maximize human outcomes creating more time with work-life integration. Talking about converting commute to constructive work time creating a third space while traveling in an autonomous vehicle (AV) to office from home. Isn’t it interesting?

Traditionally third places include cafes, parks, clubs, or even barber shops. But the growing popularity of ride-sharing and the advent of driverless technology bringing third space to the car. As the driver attention shifts from driving to being driven, we tend to use our time to work, play, consume content, and interact with one another.

This reminds me 2017 when Fiat Chrysler unveiled its Portal concept minivan, which the company billed as a “third space” designed to bridge work and home. The car supposedly will be loaded with a multitude of screens and creature comforts like selfie cameras and docking stations. Chrysler sees the Portal as “an open and serene atmosphere that provides an alternative environment between work and home.” But democratizing such ideas becomes tricky.

Imagine a workday of employees starting at 8 am as they enter the cabin of their AVs, they answer emails and work right through their commute until their AVs drops them off at the office; then after leaving at 4 pm, their AVs pick them up, and they continue working their last ‘office hour’ of the day during their commute home. HR managers can think creatively to collaborate in designing third spaces for their employees in AVs. Also, these types of future workplace reconfigurations will need to be studied carefully and administered fairly by every organization’s CHRO, with clear guidelines established around the expected productivity and use of such ‘commute work’ privilege. This could be a small initiative to start with, but a potential employee friendly move.

Can companies invest in enabling third space in autonomous cars with the right ROI on employee productivity? While we all talk about technology advancement and potential futurism, rightly blending with human connect is going to be the key for mainstream adaption!