Goldman Sachs Bullish On Bitcoin & Gold As Recession Signals Continue

Recent analyst reports from Goldman Sachs suggests investors should take advantage of the current Bitcoin price dip and buy now.

In a series of slides prepared by one of Goldman’s technical analysis teams and distributed to clients, the bank included one that put the short-term target Bitcoin price at $13,971.  They echo the sentiment shared by many that we are currently in a dip and that now is an ideal time to buy.

Bullish On Bitcoin Goldman Sachs

Source: Goldman Sachs

According to the report, there is also the potential that this could be the first leg of a five-wave count of price rises.  This means that any decrease in Bitcoin price from the $12,916-$13,971 level (where we’re currently at and have been for a few months) would be a smart buying opportunity.

This latest report from Goldman Sachs further adds to the sentiment that investors are once again eyeing the crypto industry.  Last year, Fidelity Investments revealed they would be launching a digital assets division, and earlier this year JP Morgan analysts claimed that Bitcoin has “intrinsic value”.

More recently, billionaire VC investor Tim Draper reaffirmed his belief in a $250k Bitcoin price by Q1 2023 at the latest.  These increasingly bullish feelings from Wall Street and institutional investors around the world will no doubt help drive up the price of Bitcoin in the coming months and years.

Gold was also mentioned favorably in the series of slides from Goldman, particularly in a scatter chart (see below) that “helps to identify where trends in the market are extending or turning on a week by week basis.”  Gold is featured in the “Strong and Stronger” quadrant, which means it has strengthened for both of the past two weeks. The chart also includes a note indicating that it is yet “another week in the top right quadrant for Gold/precious metals”.

Bullish On Bitcoin Goldman Sachs Percentage Increase

Source: Goldman Sachs

This comes in conjunction with a recent note sent to clients by Goldman Sachs saying that the bank expects the US-China trade war won’t be resolved before the 2020 presidential election.  They also said they believed that the economic slowdown will continue and that a recession is likely. Investors have already seen the stock market take a tumble as a result of geopolitical instability, and the U.S. has accused China of manipulating the value of the yuan to damage the profitability of American exports.

These economic conditions have caused analysts to speculate that the recent run-up in cryptocurrency and gold prices has in part been caused by Chinese investors wanting to protect their assets against a devaluing yuan.  This would mean that Bitcoin and gold prices would benefit even further from the continuation of the trade war and a subsequent recession.

BITCOIN DOMINANCE CONTINUES

Bitcoin’s dominance was down slightly this week, to 66% in total.  BTC saw significant growth in activity on futures markets, and many feel that we are currently in a bottom.  Several major analysts see a Falling Wedge pattern on the charts though, indicating that the Bitcoin price has a 70 percent chance of a bullish breakout

China’s digital currency is ready after five years of R&D.  An official from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) recently stated that the CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) prototype exists and that the PBOC’s Digital Money Research Group has already adopted the blockchain architecture for the currency.  China’s CBDC won’t rely purely on the blockchain however, as they want a solution that has sufficient throughput required for retail use.

Mastercard recently added three job openings to their website pertaining to blockchain product management.  According to the job description, they are developing a blockchain wallet solution that will likely be a rival to Facebook’s upcoming wallet Calibra.

GOLD PRICE NOW TARGETING $1,550 LEVEL

After overnight buying took gold to $1,470 an ounce, the precious metal is now targeting the $1,500 level.  According to the MKS PAMP Group, an investment firm, “Early European bids underpinned the metal to a USD $1,470 high, with consolidation above USD $1,500 the key to a further extension of the recent move higher. Gold will now look to target resistance toward USD $1,480-$1,500, while USD $1,520 looms as a pivot for near-term pricing.”

Goldman Sachs also sees gold’s rally as far from over, with analysts saying that ““Gold prices have increased further as a weaker CNY sparked substantial U.S. and global growth fears. With growth worries likely to persist, gold could rise further, driven by an increased ETF allocation from portfolio managers, who continue to under-own gold.”

With no trade deal expected before the 2020 presidential election, investors will see higher gold prices due to increased global growth fears, added Goldman.  Gold’s ETF demand is also on a strong upward trend, with the bank upping its 2019 forecast from 300 to 600 tonnes.

Now is the time to take advantage of the rising price of gold and protect yourself from stock market volatility.  Indicators are showing that these bullish trends will continue in the gold markets, giving you an excellent opportunity for immediate growth and providing protection for your assets against future economic downturns.  Don’t miss out on this opportunity. Act now and reap the benefits of crypto investments.

Products-People-Digital Equilibrium

With Prof. Michael Porter

With Dr. Michael Porter

I am writing this blog post to bring out the essence of our discussions that occurred during the”FT-PTC Future of Industrial Innovation Global Series” organized in New York yesterday. Manufacturing industry thinktank and senior leadership personas have come together to exchange ideas on how manufacturers are adopting new-age technologies to compete.

A joint keynote address from Dr. Michael Porter and James Heppelmann (Jim), CEO of PTC, was an excellent “confluence of thought” that brought together strategic mindset and technology acumen.

While the siloed productivity of human and machine/product has been evolving over decades, the Digital technologies are offering capabilities that can enable progress to the global optima and excellence creating Human-Machine/Products-Digital Advantage. Machine and Products are interchangeably used from now on in the context of manufacturing.  The connection between Products/Machine and Digital (Cloud, Digital Twin, etc.) has been established for some time. This connection enables sensing of a product’s data by digital technologies (edge/embedded) or digital controlling through the optimization of products/machines. But there is a lag between the human-machine and the human-digital connection compared to the digital-machine connection. This lag is causing the “discontinuity” of humans in human-machine-digital ecosystems.

Prof. Porter elaborated on the manufacturing evolution to date as shown below. His vision of the next phase in the evolution is “Smart Connected People”. He emphasized that this phenomenon is happening now with progress from connected products (IIoT) to Smart Connected People with the advent of Augmented Reality (AR) on occasions combined with Virtual Reality (VR) and Xtreme Reality (XR).

ft-ptc1

Today’s interfaces separate the physical and digital worlds. A prime example being the GPS system in the car. The 2D display on the GPS shows directions, but human cognizance has to take that input, process it, and finally execute it. This 2D to the 3D gap is what Dr. Porter referred to as “Cognitive Distance” which results in “Cognitive Load”. Imagine a “Heads Up” display leveraging AR that minimizes and eliminates the cognitive distance and cognitive load. AR narrows the cognitive distance by integrating the Digital world into the Physical world, seamlessly.

Digital transformation is leapfrogging the industrial and manufacturing progress continuum from Monitor -> Control -> Optimize to “Autonomy”. AR technology is uplifting the human connection by enabling visualization and collecting the instruction to pass on to the machine. Technologies like computer vision are promoting the human-machine interaction such that the embedded software & systems are allowing humans to diagnose the inner workings of products which were an earlier limitation. In scenarios where AR gets dangerous, VR can fill the gap with simulations and move forward. Thus, the Human-Machine-Digital equilibrium is being established to drive the next-level of industrial innovation.

ft-ptc2

Prof. Porter’s strategic foresight was well complemented by Jim’s real-world technology development and use cases. New-age digital technologies are expanding industry boundaries through precision agriculture and smart city solutions. In the past, products progressed to smart products and then became connected smart products but the present and future of industrial evolution revolve around “product System” and “System of Systems”. All-in-all it was great mindshare on today’s manufacturing excellence. I am parking the detailed description of use cases to my next blog post.

P4 I summarize this post with two important closing thoughts from Dr. Porter and Jim.

  1. AR enables People as IoT enables Assets/Products
    • Enabling more effective training and guidance to address the shortage of skilled front-line workers
    • Enhancing worker productivity through better collaboration with machines
    • Counterbalancing the shift to automation by empowering human workers
  2. Both IoT and AR combined to change the competitive environment, requiring new strategic choices and organizational models. For example,
    • Technology development: internal or outsource?
    • Disintermediate distribution or service channels?
    • change the business model?

In the end, I interacted with Prof. Porter to reflect on the discussions of the day and sought his expert comments on the man-machine inflection point. Here is the gist of my discussion. Over the past decades, the industry experienced a gradual reduction in annual work hours, resulting in the gradual improvement of productivity and output. One key attribute of productivity is man-machine collaboration. With digital technologies, the man-machine inflection further uplifted the productivity to 2X, 4X and in the panel discussion yesterday, one company executive was mentioning about 9X productivity gains. In view of this, my questions were,

  • Where does the productivity multiplication (constant uplift of human-machine combined productivity/inflection point) lead next?
  • In the near future, is it going to be survival of the fittest between a human vs machine as the trend line of annual working hours continue to decline?
  • In the long term, would machine constantly chase & replace the humans or the cognitive distance prevail in the foreseen future?

I will follow up with Dr. Porter on this and share further learnings. Stay tuned!!

Intelligent Algorithms & Healthcare

Algo

Healthcare industry is generating enormous amounts of structured and unstructured data. Finding innovative insights from data is of particular interest to Providers to incentivize predictive and preventive health management. This leads to healthcare industry focus on breaking data silos and leverage intelligent algorithms backed with advance analytics to create value. New age machine learning algorithms including natural language processing, pattern recognition, and deep learning are enabling better healthcare. I would like to bring up the following developments,

  • Algorithms for Cybersecurity:  Patient privacy and Cybersecurity are key focus areas for every healthcare provider. Sophisticated algorithms are aiding human skills with an ability to patrol security perimeters with more sensitivity and responsiveness. Algorithms identify patterns of normal usage and alert or flag events that are out of the ordinary by calculating a risk score for specific events as they happen based on the similarity or not to the normal behavior observed for the user performing the specific events. Supervise machine learning can cull things out that are less risky or classify them in terms of making multiple categories, like in terms of malware families. Getting Healthcare industry is in an early stages of implementing cognitive technologies ensuring security and reduce the rising threat of ransomware.
  • Algorithms for Unstructured Data (EHR to MRI Data): Extracting usable meaning from voice recordings of patient interactions, PDF images of faxed lab reports, and free-text HER are critical to an effective healthcare provision. This is where algorithms like natural language processing (NLP) can turn images of text into editable documents, extract semantic meaning from those documents, or process search queries written in plain text to return accurate results.
  • Algorithms for Clinical Support: Another important focus area is an ability extract meaning from large volumes of free text for better clinical decision support. Algorithms are helping ranging from precision medicine techniques to augment physician-guided diagnosis. Identifying and addressing risks quickly can significantly improve outcomes for patients with number of serious conditions, both clinical and behavioral. The silo nature of data organization and analysis limits the insights that doesn’t tell us a great deal about whether or not the patient has actually gotten better as a result of accessing that care. Semi-supervised and unsupervised machine learning algorithms like Clustering & Dimension Reduction can help improve the processes and dig deeper into that data and all the other variables that impact an individual’s life.
  • Algorithms for Pathology and Imaging: Healthcare organizations in improving patient outcomes is relying on Improved imaging analytics and pathology. Machine learning can supplement the skills of human radiologists by identifying subtler changes in imaging scans more quickly, potentially leading to earlier and more accurate diagnoses. Google research published during March 2017 – a new approach to imaging analytics driven by machine learning algorithms can identify metastasized breast cancer with sensitivity rates that exceed other automated methods and even rival human pathologists, is one of the best examples.

21st Century Healthcare industry has a tremendous opportunity to seize with smart usage of data science breakthroughs and evolution of intelligent machine learning algorithms.

More data on the way, preparing for “Decision-Easy Data Visualization”

Visualization

“Seeing is believing.”; “A chart worth thousand numbers/words.”

I was thinking on the striking relevance of data visualization in today’s sphere of Big Data and Hyper-Connected world. As oceans of data available and zetta bytes of data coming in (44 zettabytes by 2020 i.e. 6 to 7 stacks from Earth to Moon), data scientists and analytics engines are doing more than satisfactory job in handling Volume, Velocity, Veracity and Variety of big data. While leapfrog advancement in analytics driving predictability and prescriptive insights, human touch is inevitable in making decisions. To get insights into action, humans have to view, interpret and validate insights to get into actions. Hence data visualization plays a significantly important role in enabling decision-easy representation of insights. In view of visuals and graphics that are processed 60,000 times faster by the brain than other means of data, here are few anecdotes (deviating purposefully from business context for ease of reading) that substantiate importance of data visualization.

  • Data visual on what the average American is doing with their time at any hour of the day, then question why so many people are still in bed at 8 a.m?
  • Bloomberg’s interactive index for ranking of the world’s richest people, which is a dynamic measure of the world’s wealthiest based on market changes
  • Showing how the number of disease cases have plummeted as a result of widespread vaccine usage
  • Seeing on US map how perceptions are changed on gay marriage. Is it really like as the country goes, so goes the Supreme Court?

A clear understanding of what any data set is representing is key to visualization. More the data more the dimensions to handle. Data is no longer just a numeric. Recent patterns of big data constitute text messages, pictures, videos, virtual copies that represent physical world – factory layouts, processes and supply chains, voice etc. Channeling any type of data and pattern to a visual is a scientific process intermingled with intellectual horsepower. The success of visualization is a direct measure of how fast the viewer connect with visual and move on to next step in decision making in non-ambiguous manner, which is what I am calling as “Decision-Easy” frame of mind. Choosing the right type of visualisation depends on what needs to be shown (comparison, distribution, composition, or relationship), how much detail the viewer needs, and what information the viewer needs in order to be successful. With this context, I have provided details with the help of the diagram above on depth and breadth of data visualization techniques and their applicability in real life scenarios. Leveraged Dr. Andrew Abela chart chooser.

Inventory Data Visualtion

Shown above is the summary of most of the available data visualisation techniques. Although the variety of data visualisation options may feel overwhelming, choosing a right representation that clearly comprehend data and insights will be a game changer.